Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction❮Reading❯ ➶ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Author Philip E. Tetlock – A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Ev A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of Art and Epub Ú The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future whether buying stocks crafting policy launching a new product or simply planning the week’s meals Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark study even Superforecasting: The PDF/EPUB or experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of The Art and Epub Ú a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters The Art and Science of Epub /   In this groundbreaking and accessible book Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin they show that good forecasting doesn’t reuire powerful computers or arcane The Art and Science of Epub / methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources thinking probabilistically working in teams keeping score and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business finance politics international affairs or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic From the Hardcover edition. During the first hundred pages I was sure to give the book a perfect score It totally caught my attention and made me want and The book made me feel like it had been written for me someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts but feels like he could be good at itThen after the half of the book you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe always uestion your predictions till the time runs out learn from the past and see beyond your conic visionThis book is very interesting and worth giving a shot It's a good mix of science and history but you still feel like you're reading a novel I was expecting nothing from this book and got uite a fun at reading it I've been positively surprised and hope you'll be tooI got to thank Philip E Tetlock and Random House of Canada for this book I received through Goodreads giveaways Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania He is a co leader of the Good Judgment Project a long term forecasting study It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts You can learn about the project on theGood Judgment website In this book you can learn the basics of how to make accurate forecasts in the face of uncertainty and incomplete factsAn amazing tournament was held which pitted amateur volunteers in the Good Judgment Project with the best analysts at IARPA Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency The amateurs with the best records for accuracy are termed superforecasters They performed 30% better than the professional analysts who had access to classified information This was not a simple tournament It was held over a long period of time enough time to allow a good amount of research and thinking and discussions among team members It involved hundreds of uestions These uestions were asked in a precise uantitative way with definite time frames And besides giving predictions players in the tournament estimated their confidence levels in each of their predictions Their forecasts along with their estimated confidence levels went into the final scoresSo what are the ualities of a good superforecaster? Perhaps the dominant trait is active open mindedness They do not hold onto beliefs when evidence is brought against them They all have an intellectual humility; they realize that reality is very complex Superforecasters are almost all highly numerate people They do not use sophisticated mathematical models but they understand probability and confidence levels Superforecasters intuitively apply Bayes theorem without explicitly using the formula uantitatively They care about their reputations but their self esteem stakes are less than those of career CIA analysts and reputable pundits So when new evidence develops they are likely to update their forecasts Superforecasters update their forecasts often in small increments of probabilityThe book discusses the movie Zero Dark Thirty about the military assault on the compound in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden was hiding The character playing Leon Panetta railed against all the different opinions of the intelligence analysts But the real Leon Panetta understood the differences in opinions and welcomed them He understood that analysts do not all think alike they have diverse perspectives and this helps to make the wisdom of the crowd accurate overall It was found that teams score 23% better than individualsThe book dispells the myth that during World War II German soldiers unuestioningly followed orders while Americans took the initiative and improvised The truth especially in the early phases of the war was often exactly the opposite The Germans followed a philosophy that military orders should tell leaders what to do but not how to do it American leaders were given very detailed orders that removed initiative creativity and improvisation The author deliberately chose this example to make us suirm One should always keep in mind that even an evil vicious immoral enemy can be competent Never underestimate your adversary This is difficult in practice; even superforecasters can conflate facts and values Nowadays the military has radically changed The military encourages initiative and improvisation However corporations are much focused on command and control Their hierarchical structure tends to micro manage In fact some corporations have hired ex military officers to advise company executives to worry less about status and instead to empower their employeesAn appendix at the end of the book is a list of the Ten Commandments for superforecasting These are useful generalities for successful forecasting But even here the authors are intellectually humble; their last commandment is not always to treat all the commandments as commandmentsThis is a fascinating engaging book about a subject I had never thought much about The book is easy reading filled with lots of anecdotes and interesting examples The authors rely uite a bit on the wisdom of behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Twersky They have given a lot of thought to the subject of forecasting and it really shows 5⭐️ What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking Fast and Slow Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well Philip E Tetlock andor his co author not sure who should take the credit are superb storytellers It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this bookI usually read several books simultaneously one or two non fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories But last week 'Superforecasting' monopolised my reading time And it is particularly telling how well it managed to trample competition from its fiction 'rivals'It goes straight to my absolute best non fiction shelf I recommend it strongly to all curious about the psychology of decision making and an ability of our mind to cope the uncertainty When it comes to forecasting most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards according to Phillip Tetlock who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner an excellent science journalist to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers Oddly consumers of forecasts generally do not reuire evidence of accuracy Few television networks or web sites score the accuracy of forecasts Years ago as a stockbroker I gave very little weight to the forecasts of my firm's experts; the stocks they recommended were as likely to go down as they were to go up Today as an occasional television pundit I'm often asked to forecast electoral outcomes so I was very curious about Tetlock's 2 percent that managed superforecastingHow predictable something is depends on what we are trying to predict how far into the future and under what circumstances according to Tetlock and Gardner It makes no sense to try to predict the economy ten years from now for example But he wanted to understand how the best forecasters manage to maintain accuracy over the course of many predictions In order to find out he launched the Good Judgement Project which involved 2800 volunteer forecasters who worked on a series of prediction problems over several years After the first year he identified the best forecasters and put them on teams to answer uestions like whether Arafat was poisoned by polonium whether WMDs were in Ira and whether Osama bin Laden was in Abbottabad His findings shed light on the kind of evidence based probabilistic logical thought processes that go into the best predictions A section on group think is nicely illustrated by the Bay of Pigs disaster; the ability of JFK's team to learn from their mistakes is demonstrated by the same group's skillful response to the Cuban missile crisis Written in an engaging and accessible style Superforecasting illustrates every concept with a good story often featuring national surprises like 911 and the lack of WMDs in Ira with explanations of why forecasters missed what looks obvious in hindsight Ultimately this is a book about critical thinking that challenges the reader to bring rigor to his or her own thought processes Tetlock and Gardner have made a valuable contribution to a world of internet factoids and snap judgments Philip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertionJust say Thomas Friedman is a bad forecasterInstead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he referencesThinking Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don'tThis books feels like a superficial summary of the afore mentioned books and an attempt to combine themThe central lessons of “Superforecasting” can be distilled into a handful of directives Base predictions on data and logic and try to eliminate personal bias Keep track of records so that you know how accurate you and others are Think in terms of probabilities and recognize that everything is uncertain Unpack a uestion into its component parts distinguishing between what is known and unknown and scrutinizing your assumptions New York Times review This book features some interesting trivia about Super forecasters but when it comes to explaining evidence based practice it was Super disappointing It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence based medicine EBM but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM In EBM you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it's evidence based as long as you rigorously evaluate what you're doing NO If your doctor gives you arsenic instead of antibiotics for your bacterial infection that's not OK even if he does lots of lab tests afterwards to see how you're progressing In EBM you focus on the best available evidence There's a difference between what some drug rep told you vs the conclusions of a randomized clinical trial But when Tetlock reviews the Ira War fiasco he argues there was a really big pile of evidence so it made sense to go to war He doesn't seem to get that a really big pile of crap is still just crap Some elements of the pro war narrative were known to be bogus before the war Others turned out to be bogus after Curveball etc so those were not investigated and confirmed as solid evidence beforehand either In EBM the point of a diagnostic test is to get a predictive value This number tells you how likely a test result is to be true based on its track record Instead Tetlock praises his forecasters for making up percentages that reflect their subjective degree of certitude And he calls those probabilities but that is very misleading because in science a probability is something like the chance of drawing a royal flush in poker ie it's an objectively calculated number based on reality In EBM the big issue is whether the treatment works for the main relevant outcome So for the Ira War example the uestion for the CIA was whether an invasion would A spread democracy in the Middle East after preventing an imminent nuclear attack on the USA or B not prevent anything because there was no secret new nukes program and increase regional chaos as well as global terrorism think ISIS This decision tree is absent from the book and that omission violates Tetlock's own rule about asking the meaningful hard uestion This book has good content on cognitive biases But I would recommend going directly to the source on that topic This book was solid though perhaps not uite as good as I hopedexpected It was interesting reading full of interesting stories and examples The author doesn't prescribe a particular method superforecasting it appears is about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances As a result at times I felt the author's thread was being lost or scattered; however upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making predictions On reflection his guidelines are clear and should be helpful even if they cannot provide a method for correct predictions 100% of the timeOne critiue I had was that the author didn't provide any statistical evidence of why the people he identified as superforecasters were good as opposed to lucky I continued to think some of the examples he gave were based on luck not necessarily skill the author distilled a lesson that contributed to the success but I would have had confidence that his conclusion represented the reason for the superforecasters' success if he had provided statistical evidence to support that conclusion Nonetheless his conclusionsguidelines appear sound and I plan on using them Harry Truman famously said Give me a one handed economist All my economics say ''On the one hand? on the other''Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research1 People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident They reason that confidence represents skills2 Experts who employ publicly acceptable role of hedgehogs ideologically narrow minded andor express ideas with 100% certainty are wrong on most things most of the time General public is fooled by hindsight bias on the part of experts and lack of accountability3 We live in the nonlinear complex probabilistic world thus we need to shape our thinking accordingly Those who do it foxes comparing to hedgehogs can think non simplistically become much better experts in their own field and better forecasters in generalI guess nobody with sufficient I or relevant experience will find any new and surprising ideas in this book However the story is interesting in itself and many Tetlock's arguments and examples can be borrowed for further discussions with real people in the real life settings I'm giving this a 4 even though I didn't complete it It's very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn't for meSome exceptional real world examples though I usually rank my favorite books on a line between „extremely readable“ and „ very useful“ This one is probably among my Top 3 most useful books ever The other two are Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow” and Taleb's “Black Swan” You don't have to agree on everything with the author but you still will get dozens of truly important facts that can fundamentally affect your life Don't be misguided by the title – you really have to read this book even if you don't have the ambition to predict stock prices or revolutions in the Arab world Whether we like it or not we are all forecasters making important life decisions such as changing career path or choosing a partner based on dubious personal forecasts This book will show you how to dramatically improve those forecasts based on data and experience of the most successful forecasters You’ll be surprised that those experts usually aren’t CIA analysts or skilled journalists but ordinary intelligent people who knows how to avoid most common biases suppress their ego and systematically assess things from different angles We will never be able to make perfect predictions but at least we can learn from the very best

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle
  • ebook
  • 352 pages
  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
  • Philip E. Tetlock
  • Portuguese
  • 10 May 2014
  • 9780804136709